Trade & maritime brief — Tuesday, 28 July 2026

• Hormuz / Gulf crude: Pause in US-Iran strikes has not unlocked the strait: Kpler shows daily crossings down from ~45 to ~13, shifted almost entirely to the Iranian-side route, and IMF PortWatch (19 Jul) shows Hormuz cargo capacity ~20% below its own depressed 7-day average. Treat Gulf loadings as constrained into August; do not price a reopening on the diplomatic headlines alone.
• Oil price: Last official marks are Brent $86.99 / WTI $84.38 (EIA/FRED, 20 Jul), but press reports an ~8% crater after the weekend pause — the market is trading the diplomacy, not the still-broken physical flow. That gap (paper down, physical throughput down) argues against chasing the sell-off on prompt barrels.
• Red Sea / Suez reroute: Saudi crude is exiting via Suez/Sumed rather than risking Bab el-Mandeb (DHT VLCCs reported swarming Suez; Clarksons counts only one VLCC/day at Bab el-Mandeb). PortWatch confirms: Suez tanker transits 21 vs 17.1 avg, Bab el-Mandeb total transits 33 vs 40.1 avg. Budget for the longer/costlier Suez-Sumed routing on AG-West barrels.
• Asia products squeeze: Guardian reports Asia 'scraping the bottom of the barrel' as the Red Sea/Hormuz blockade tightens energy supply; Malacca throughput is running below trend (PortWatch 170 transits vs 215 avg; our live feed 76 vessels vs 77.8 baseline). Asian import cover, not European, is the stress point to watch.
• US Gulf congestion: Our live AIS shows 502 vessels in the US Gulf zone vs a 338.8 7-day baseline with heavy anchored/slow share — a genuine congestion build at the load hub that could slow US export liftings (EIA already shows exports easing to 3,353 kbbl/d wk to 17 Jul).
• Tariff overhang: A rebuilt Section 301 global tariff program plus new forced-labor tariffs on 60 partners is now in litigation; box demand and transpacific routing decisions face policy risk into the SCOTUS/midterm window — keep contract flexibility.

Escalation · U.S.–Iran

Three quiet nights, one closed strait: the Hormuz pause is priced, the paralysis isn't

The US and Iran held fire for a third consecutive night and Trump spoke of 'good talks', sending oil down sharply — press reports an ~8% single-session drop from the last official marks of Brent $86.99 (EIA, 20 Jul). But Tehran says it still controls the Strait of Hormuz and is not seeking talks, and the physical data backs the harder read: Kpler counts daily Hormuz crossings down from roughly 45 to 13, with remaining traffic shifted almost entirely onto the unrecognised Iranian-side route. IMF PortWatch (as of 19 Jul) shows Hormuz cargo capacity at ~183k tonnes/day against an already-collapsed 228k 7-day average.

The risk is meanwhile spreading west and tying theatres together: an LPG tanker with 28 Indian crew was attacked in Iranian waters, a Ukrainian drone struck an Iranian ship in the Caspian, and Houthi threats have pushed Saudi barrels out of Bab el-Mandeb — Clarksons counts a single VLCC per day there, while DHT supertankers work the Suez/Sumed workaround. Novorossiysk resumed crude loadings after a days-long halt, removing one supply worry even as drone activity persists nearby.

Market read: Paper markets are pricing de-escalation while seaborne flow data still shows a ~70% Hormuz throughput cut. Either the strait genuinely reopens in days — or prompt crude and freight (war-risk premia, Suez-routed tonne-miles) are being sold too early. Skew long disruption protection.

Read: Last official prints: WTI $84.38, Brent $86.99 (EIA/FRED, 20 Jul), Henry Hub $2.80, US gasoline $4.001/gal — with press reporting an ~8% oil sell-off after the weekend pause, so live Brent is materially below the official mark; treat the EIA/FRED numbers as a stale anchor. US weekly data (EIA, wk to 17 Jul): imports 5,806 kbbl/d (up 117), exports 3,353 kbbl/d (down 368), stocks building to 411.7m bbl — a US system leaning slightly more domestic as Atlantic-basin demand for its barrels shifts. Country-level seaborne crude deliveries: precise daily barrels are commercial-tracker products and not available in today's inputs beyond Kpler's Hormuz crossing counts; directionally, Gulf exports remain severely constrained (Hormuz -70%), Saudi west-bound crude is taking Suez/Sumed, Russia's Novorossiysk has resumed loading, and Asia (per the Guardian) is drawing down inventory. Persian Gulf/Hormuz has no free-AIS coverage — the published data above, not our blank feed, is the basis.

Live coverage this window is 8 of 17 zones — Hormuz, Fujairah, the Persian Gulf, Singapore and India West Coast are all dark (feed gap, not zero traffic), so the priority VLCC watch runs on PortWatch/Kpler only: zero VLCCs observed in any covered zone. What we do see: US Gulf at 502 vessels vs a 338.8 baseline with ~77% slow/anchored — a real congestion build, corroborated by tankers like UMM WISHAH (anchored since ~18 Jul ETA) and AQUALEGEND holding at Sabine offshore anchorage; ~11.25m bbl of tanker capacity sits in the zone. Malacca is flat vs baseline (76 vs 77.8) with modest tanker presence (~2.15m bbl), consistent with reduced Gulf outflow. Rotterdam is heavily moored but that is normal port working; ~6.2m bbl tanker capacity present. The stale Bosphorus snapshot (24h old) showed anchored count 4x baseline — watch with Novorossiysk resuming. Method caveat: AIS shows capacity present in a window, not confirmed discharge.

• EVER AIM / EVER GLOBE (ULCVs, Panama flag) — 400m and 399m Evergreen mega-boxships moored Rotterdam; EVER GLOBE at 15.6m draught (laden inbound), EVER AIM at 11m working Felixstowe→Rotterdam. Owner/load-port enrichment not run this brief — Evergreen operation inferred from name only, unverified.
  Asia-Europe headhaul is still delivering into North Europe at scale despite chokepoint stress — no sign of Rotterdam boxship starvation yet.
• KOTA PLUMBAGO (ULCV, 366m) — Anchored in Malacca zone bound Singapore anchorage. Kota-prefix naming is consistent with PIL, but owner unverified (enrichment not run).
  Normal Singapore staging; Malacca box flow functioning, just below trend.
• UMM WISHAH (tanker, 299m, French flag) — ~1.0m bbl class, anchored US Gulf, destination USNSS with an ETA already 10 days past — sitting in the queue. Owner/load port: not found (unverified).
  Direct evidence of the US Gulf congestion build; discharge delays add to the import-side stocks story.
• KINISIS (tanker, 295m, Liberia) — Moored US Gulf, prior leg Gibraltar → Lake Charles. Owner/load port: not found (unverified).
  Atlantic-basin barrels flowing into USGC as Mideast supply tightens — consistent with rising US imports (EIA).
• GAS AL MUBARAKIAH (LPG, 229m, Kuwait) — Kuwaiti-flag gas carrier anchored in Malacca bound BGPG. Notable given Friday's attack on an LPG tanker in Iranian waters (28 Indian crew, safe).
  Gulf LPG is still moving east, but the attack puts a war-risk question over every AG gas lifting.
• LARGO AURORA (tanker, 183m, Malta) — Underway US Gulf, declared Beaumont → São Luís (Brazil).
  US products/crude pull into Latin America continues even as headline US crude exports ease.

Dry bulk is softening — the Baltic Dry fell 1.7% to 2,696 Monday on weak capesize demand (capesize index -2% to 4,200) — yet period money is chasing cover: Diana fixed its newcastlemax Philadelphia at $35,500/day, a 65% rate uplift, into 2027. Tanker newbuilding appetite is running hot on the disruption trade: DH Shipbuilding and Daehan each booked fresh suezmax pairs for European owners (DH at a record 17 ships this year, ~$196m for two). In boxes, liner reliability improved to 63.1% in Q2 but carriers are sacrificing regional services to protect core lanes; HMM approved a $19.7bn expansion to 1.55m teu by 2030; the Gulf landbridge that emerged during the war divides opinion (K+N calls it unsustainable). Bunker-side, the conflict has lifted prices enough to accelerate efficiency measures, and trader salaries are up ~30%.

• Hellenic Shipping News / Kpler
  Strait of Hormuz crossings drop 70% as tanker traffic shifts almost entirely to the Iranian route
  The single most important physical datapoint today — quantifies the paralysis the price action is ignoring.
• gCaptain
  Iran says it still controls Strait, not seeking talks, after Trump halts bombing
  Directly contradicts the de-escalation narrative driving the oil sell-off.
• Ship & Bunker
  Oil craters by 8% after weekend pause in U.S./Iran hostilities
  Explains the gap between EIA's $87 Brent mark (20 Jul) and today's market; sets up the paper-vs-physical divergence.
• TradeWinds
  DHT Holdings ships swarm Suez Canal as Sumed pipeline route develops
  Names the workaround for AG-West crude; matches PortWatch's above-average Suez tanker transits.
• Ship & Bunker / Clarksons
  Red Sea risks could double sailing distance for Yanbu crude — only one VLCC/day crossing Bab el-Mandeb
  Quantifies the Red Sea tanker retreat; tonne-mile bullish for suezmax/VLCC.
• The Guardian
  Asia 'scraping the bottom of the barrel' as Red Sea oil blockade worsens energy crisis
  The demand-side stress point: Asian inventory draw is where physical tightness will surface first.
• gCaptain
  Russia's Novorossiysk resumed crude loadings after days of halt
  Removes a Black Sea supply outage just as Bosphorus anchorage was building; watch Urals flow normalise.
• Splash247
  Ukraine strike on Iranian ship ties wars together
  First direct kinetic link between the Ukraine and Middle East wars at sea — widens the retaliation surface for shipping.

• Hormuz daily crossings (Kpler/PortWatch): any move back above ~20/day would validate the oil sell-off; stagnation at ~13 says fade it.
• Whether US-Iran talks produce a dated framework before strikes resume — Trump has explicitly threatened resumption on failure.
• Bab el-Mandeb tanker count and Houthi activity: a drop below Clarksons' 1 VLCC/day toward zero forces the full Yanbu reroute.
• Suez/Sumed queue formation — Suez is already running above its 7-day average; congestion there would stack delay on the workaround.
• US Gulf anchorage clearing (our live count vs the 338.8 baseline) and next EIA weeklies for whether export softness extends.
• Iranian response to the Caspian drone strike — new theatre risk for Caspian/Volga trade.
• CH Robinson Q2 (29 Jul) and the Section 301 litigation calendar for tariff-driven freight repricing.