2026-07-14 · East Africa

East Africa Heads Into Its Biggest Maize Surplus in a Decade

Published by FarmGate — the African agro trade platform

The region is heading into its biggest maize surplus in a decade - with a super El Nino waiting on the other side. Agri Intelligence Africa's weekly outlook forecasts the 2026/27 southern-African white maize surplus growing to ~5.5 million tonnes on record crops in South Africa and Zambia: "If our forecast is correct it will be the biggest surplus in at least the last 10 years."

Kenya's price collapse is the story on the ground. A record ~70-million-bag harvest plus duty-free imports crashed the 90kg bag from ~Sh4,600 toward Sh2,200. Farmers who paid peak input costs are selling at a loss and hunting export outlets in Uganda, South Sudan and the DRC.

The community sees a structural competitiveness gap, not a weather blip. On the month's most-discussed TikTok breakdown, the top comment (181 likes) is first-hand: "I was in Iringa and Siginda let me tell you, seed companies have heavily invested in Tz, the production is massive."

Key patterns

1. Surplus now, El Nino later - the 2026/27 glut is real but weather risk inverts the trade for 2027/28
2. Duty-free is not free flow - export permits and levies are the real price-setters in EAC grain
3. Kenyan farmers are becoming exporters out of necessity