The Desk
A daily read on the trade lanes our cargo moves through — chokepoints, freight, energy and the vessels themselves — synthesised each morning from AIS, PortWatch, EIA and the wires.
Saturday, 1 August 2026
THREAT CONDITION — SEVERE: Active US–Iran hostilities with Iran stopping ships in Hormuz, satellite AIS showing Hormuz daily cargo capacity roughly two-thirds below its 7-day average, and drone strikes on merchant shipping now spanning the Gulf, Red Sea and Bl…
Friday, 31 July 2026
THREAT CONDITION — ELEVATED: The drone strike on gas vessels at Damietta extends U.S.–Iran conflict risk from Hormuz to the Suez/Mediterranean corridor while PortWatch shows Hormuz cargo capacity collapsing versus its 7-day average.
Wednesday, 29 July 2026
THREAT CONDITION — ELEVATED: Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers and a widening war-risk map (Caspian drone strike, Red Sea blockade) are compressing Bab el-Mandeb throughput while Hormuz de-escalation signals (Oman fee plan, Trump restraining Israel) cap c…
Tuesday, 28 July 2026
THREAT CONDITION — ELEVATED: US-Iran attacks paused a third night and oil sold off, but Hormuz crossings remain ~70% below pre-war levels and the threat is migrating to Bab el-Mandeb — de-escalation in prices, not yet in physical flows.
Sunday, 26 July 2026
THREAT CONDITION — ELEVATED: Houthi fire on Saudi Red Sea oil terminals and a Yanbu-bound supertanker U-turn before Bab el-Mandeb directly threaten the Hormuz-bypass route that has been keeping Saudi crude flowing — Red Sea tanker transits are already running …
Saturday, 25 July 2026
THREAT CONDITION — SEVERE: Simultaneous disruption at three chokepoints — Hormuz tanker crossings at a 2.5-month low amid US strikes on Iran, a declared Houthi blockade of Saudi-linked traffic at Bab el-Mandeb, and renewed Black Sea attacks — while new US tari…
Friday, 24 July 2026
THREAT CONDITION — SEVERE: Houthi attacks on two Saudi tankers under a declared 'naval blockade' of Saudi Arabia, US strikes on Iran and Trump's threat of 'major military punishment' put both Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz at simultaneous risk, with tanker U-turns a…
Thursday, 23 July 2026
THREAT CONDITION — SEVERE: Houthi strikes on two Saudi tankers and a declared blockade of Saudi exports through Bab el-Mandeb, layered on an already-degraded Hormuz, put both of Saudi Arabia's seaborne crude routes at risk simultaneously.
Wednesday, 22 July 2026
THREAT CONDITION — SEVERE: The US-Iran ceasefire has unravelled with tankers abandoned near Hormuz while the Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi ports, putting both of the Gulf's export exits under simultaneous threat.
Tuesday, 21 July 2026
THREAT CONDITION — SEVERE: Active attacks on merchant tankers at the Strait of Hormuz have cut chokepoint throughput to a fraction of normal while the Houthis declare a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, putting both Gulf export routes under simultaneous threat.
Monday, 20 July 2026
THREAT CONDITION — SEVERE: Two simultaneous crude-export disruptions — Hormuz tanker transits down ~85% vs 7-day average amid IRGC interference, and CPC Black Sea loadings suspended after drone attacks — put roughly a fifth of seaborne crude supply at elevated…
Sunday, 19 July 2026
THREAT CONDITION — SEVERE: Fresh US strikes on Iran after two US troops were killed in Jordan put the interim ceasefire — and the fragile Hormuz export recovery — at immediate risk, with Bab el-Mandeb named as the next likely flashpoint.
Saturday, 18 July 2026
THREAT CONDITION — SEVERE: US-Iran infrastructure strikes are widening while Hormuz transits run at roughly a quarter of the 7-day trend, and Tehran has reportedly primed the Houthis to close Bab el-Mandeb — the Gulf-to-Red-Sea corridor is now a two-chokepoint…
Friday, 17 July 2026
THREAT CONDITION — SEVERE: Hormuz tanker transits have nearly stopped (1 vs 6.3/day 7-day avg, IMF PortWatch 07-12) amid a fifth day of US-Iran strikes, and Iran has told the Houthis to be ready to close the Red Sea route — a simultaneous two-chokepoint threat…
Thursday, 16 July 2026
THREAT CONDITION — SEVERE: US strikes on Iran and a reimposed naval blockade have cut Strait of Hormuz cargo capacity to ~23% of its 7-day average, with Tehran now threatening to extend disruption to Bab el-Mandeb/Red Sea.
Wednesday, 15 July 2026
THREAT CONDITION — SEVERE: Active US–Iran military exchanges have effectively shut commercial crude flow through the Strait of Hormuz — tanker transits are down ~84% vs the 7-day average — while Iran signals it may reactivate the Houthi threat to the Red Sea j…
Tuesday, 14 July 2026
THREAT CONDITION — SEVERE: Iran struck at least five tankers near Hormuz (one Indian seafarer killed), the US is reimposing a blockade of Iranian ports and proposing a 20% transit toll, and PortWatch shows Hormuz tanker transits collapsing to 1/day vs a 6.3 7-…
Monday, 13 July 2026
THREAT CONDITION — SEVERE: Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and attacked a container ship in the strait; the US has launched a third round of strikes and will reinstate its maritime blockade of Iranian shipping Tuesday — roughly a fifth of global …